UFC on ESPN 37 Post-Fight Analysis

Got some rough luck with decisions this time around. Three split decisions flip a potentially big profit into big loss. That said, my bets weren't good and think in big picture, the bad luck was warranted.

Main Card

The fight was mostly as expected, except Kattar was a bit more gun shy and lower volume as usual and obviously worried about Emmett's power. Emmett had big flurries in most of the rounds that made almost all of them flip rounds, while Kattar had volume edge but only barely. Only round 4 had a clear winner, Kattar, and even that the judges didn't get right, so it is not wonder that in the end Emmett got the split decision.

I had both Kattar decision and Emmett KO obviously in the main event, thinking that obviously nothing could go wrong, but ironically Kattar being so hesitant to engage made both of those probabilities lower. Kattar goes in harder he will edge clearer rounds, make the dodgy split decision less likely, but also lean more into the volatility of getting bonked by Emmett. 

In the co-main Kevin Holland put together very good performance to soundly beat and finish Means. Nothing much to do in terms of conclusions about Means, the man just lost to a very athletic and rangy guy who clearly was focused. Holland still liability to takedowns but big problem in the stand-up. 

If Albert Duraev really believed Joaquin Buckley was gonna be easy match-up for it, he got put in his place in style. Buckley had him hurt a dozen times before doctor stopped Duraev after two rounds. 

Damir Ismagulov and Guram Kutateladze duked it out to an extremely close split decision. I thought Guram had it, but that's one of those very razor thin decisions and Ismagulov got the split. Again few units swinging against me. 

I was calling for a pretty high tempo match between Rodrigues and Marquez with big bombs being thrown, and in the end that's exactly what happened, but it was mostly just Marquez on the receiving end. Good thing I had G-Rod early as a back-up, but in hindsight might have wanted to size that a little bigger.

Adrian Yanez did what everyone wanted and KO'd Tony Kelley after some good early moments from Kelley. Kelley did the right things to make it possibly a close fight but ultimately Yanez just too good, hurt him multiple times in a short span before putting the man out. 

Prelims

Natalia da Silva showed she isn't just some random Brazilian off the regional scene but a legit contender already for the division. Jasmine Jasudavicius might not be the greatest fighter in the division, but she is not slouch and Da Silva hardly gave her a snitch. Fast, crisp striking, great conditioning and steady takedown defence is gonna take Da Silva long way.

Jeremiah Wells kept his streak of fast finishes going by murdering Court McGee was. Hard to say if McGee is cooked, most people would have been put out by the shot he absorbed.

Ricardo Ramos was always gonna be the more skilled guy against Danny Chavez, but one worried about his defensive liabilities. Those might still be there but Ramos hardly absorbed anything on route to a spectacular spinning KO that once again showcased his offensive capabilities.

Maria Oliveira started fast against Gloria de Paula, in fact so fast I thought she was gonna gas and I hammered the live line on GDP. It indeed looked like I had made a good bet in the 2nd round as Oliveira, albeit still throwing a lot, was clearly slowing down and was kept on her heels the whole.

Don't know what De Paula then thought, completely abandoning what had worked so well for the first half of the third round. Completely shit the bed and allowed Oliveira to build a lead, and actually managed to lose some grappling exchanges too, which is inexcusable since Oliveira was the worse grappler.

In the end it was a dodgy split decision. I don't hate Oliveira getting it cause it was bad bet from me, but that was third split that went against me. 

It also ruined all the good work I did in the first three fights, calling the Stamann v Wineland and Hawes v Winn completely correctly. Two one-sided beatdowns there. 

Night started with a surprise win to Dolidze. Think the guy isn't still getting credit for being a powerful guy, he didn't just meme KO Daukaus, he had him hurt couple of times whíle the fight lasted.

My picks

7/13 right out of pre-fight leans, 7/13 right on whether fight goes the distance or not. Not the greatest. Despite making a handful of good bets, I couldn't handle three lost split decisions and ended up at loss of around 8u. 

Best bet of the night? Easily Hawes inside the distance, thought Stamann KO and Buckley KO were close runner-ups. G-Rod R1/R2 wasn't bad either, but then again most of my exposure in that fight was on the other side. Worst bet was De Paula live, though more for completely disproportionate sizing than the bet itself. I don't hate throwing 1-2u in the way it was going, it wouldn't have been good bet but I could have lived with it. 

Three unlucky splits swung the night for at least 15 units, but all in all that was a deserved losing spot there. GTD would have been much better bet for the main event than the bets that I eventually did. You know, just always bet GTD on the main events. I mean Jiri vs. Glover was 30 seconds away from going the distance despite killing each other 30 times over the course of the fight... these main events just don't get finishes. 

On to the next week. Gotta do more tape this time and especially pay attention to having more intelligent bet sizing. Hawes, Stamann and Buckley fights show I can make good reads, it's just matter of putting it all together and hitting the right spots big and not shitting the bed on some random WMMA fight.