UFC on ESPN 38 Preview & Predictions
Main Event: Arman Tsarukyan vs. Mateusz Gamrot
Both very high-level, highly touted prospects, but I feel this is pretty straightforward match, Tsarukyan just is better everywhere. It's gonna start off as a close fight but Arman with his superior cardio will start to pull away late. Even if I am wrong and Gamrot will have some success early, Arman has survived with better guys (Islam) so think he can keep it close long enough until the cardio gap starts to show itself.
Prediction: Arman Tsarykuan / GTD
Bets: 3u Arman ML to win 1.2u, 1.5u Arman R4/5/Dec to win 1.7u
Co-Main Event: Neil Magny vs. Shavkat Rakhmonov
Should be a good test for Shavkat whom everyone seem to now think is the Jesus' next coming. Don't get me wrong, I think he is high-level but getting past Magny is not easy out for anyone.
It's interesting that Shavkat has retained 100% finish rate and now faces the ultimate decision machine in Magny. Since being KO'd by Ponz in 2018, he has gone to six decisions in a row. Even that Ponz fight would have gone the distance as a three-round fight, as the finish came in the 4th round. What I am getting at is that Magny is durable and good at hanging on in the fights.
It's really question of how well Shavkat can avoid just being clinchfucked by Magny. That's hard to say. I lean on Shavkat being the real deal, but this might be tricky.
Prediction: Shavkat Rakhmonov / GTD
Bets: 1.5u Magny ML to win 5.4u
Josh Parisian vs. Alan Baudot
Think that Porky fight really showed the consistent formula to beat Baudot, even if you can't take him down consistently just keep wearing on him against the cage. Don't think Parisian is the most reliable guy to implement that strategy though.
Thiago Moises vs. Christos Giagos
Been rough going for Moises having been finished back-to-back, but surely he has this? Giagos ought to be able to make the early going tight but he has always been gassy. Moises late finish or a decision most likely outcomes here.
Prediction: Thiago Moises / GTD
Bets: Moises ML 1.5u to win 0.6u, 1u Moises R3/dec to win 1.4u
Nathan Maness vs. Umar Nurmagomedov
Umar looks like the real deal in all aspects. We all expected him to beat Kelleher but he managed to outperform the expectations. As usual though the lines are absolutely steamed so finding value here will be tough.
Before we conclude Umar is the real deal though, we do need to see him in stiffer tests than what he has had so far.
Is Maness that guy? Well, he ought to test Umar at least little bit, but he isn't especially good even if he is running on a 4-fight win streak. He is benefiting from bottom of the UFC level being so low and has been feeding off of those bottom-level guys. Still, at least he isn't easy to take down and is alright striker. He will pose some offensive threat, but when you get dropped by Tony Gravely it is still hard to see you last longer than two rounds with Umar.
Prediction: Umar Nurmagomedov / DGTD
Bets: DGTD 2.75u to win 1.6u, 0.5u Maness KO to win 7.5u
Chris Curtis vs. Rodolfo Vieira
As is the tradition, we will continue to under-estimate Chris Curtis and lose money to it. To be fair though, it's absolutely feasible he gets another KO here if Vieira can't consistently grapple. On the other hand, if Vieira does get it to the mat, it's Vieira R1 incoming...
Prediction: Rodolfo Vieira / DGTD
Bets: 1.5u Vieira R1 to win 5u, 1u Curtis KO2/3 to win 3.5u
Carlos Ulberg vs. Tafon Nchukwi
Pretty boys don't make good fighters. Tafon was having his way with a better fighter until getting fluke KO'd think he will bounce back here with a dominant win. Question is just will it be dominant enough to consistently end inside the distance... think not. Tafon has decent output but he isn't exactly super urgent to finish.
Think he will be content to just outpoint Ulberg most of the time. He definitely could get the finish if he pushes for it but as said, it's more likely to be a midtempo striking match, especially considering Tafon might be a little cautious after having been KO'd last time out.
Prediction: Tafon Nchukwi / GTD
Bets: 2.5u Nchukwi to win 2u
Shayilan Nuerdanbieke vs. TJ Brown
Nuerdanbieke did not show very complete game in his previous fight, but he toughed it out and got a win and that definitely counts for something. Also it's pretty difficult not to show up significantly improved in the striking department after what was seen last time.
It's pretty funny match-up since both have tendency to get their legs chewed up. I think Brown is much more likely to take advantage of his opponents defensive hole though.
Brown definitely has to be the side here, best case scenario is that he is better everywhere clearly, worst case is that he edges striking and grappling is close. Should be fun scrap but not particularly hopeful of there being a finish either way. Neither guy is crazy powerful and should be good enough to stay out of submissions unless hurt.
Prediction: TJ Brown / GTD
Bets: 1u Brown to win 0.5u
Raulian Paiva vs. Sergei Morozov
I kind of feel I can no longer trust Morozov after losing bets on him both against Umar and De Andrade. If I recall correctly anyway... Either way I still try to not overcorrect from my initial assertion that he is at least a reasonably good fighter.
He certainly looked like a good fighter in 1st round against De Andrade, but then kind of just gassed and quit. Early on he had De Andrade hurt bad though. He better do that again here for him to have a locked win against Paiva, cause I do think if the fight goes long Paiva can have enough output to at least make the latter two rounds close and get a split decision.
Whether it goes the distance or not is pretty close, but I think most likely only way this finishes is with Morozov early win, don't think Paiva takes over so bad here that Morozov gets finished late.
Prediction: Sergei Morozov / GTD
Bets: Morozov 1u to win 0.7u
JP Buys vs. Cody Durden
Not really a coherent match-up, but since Buys seems to be the good guy in the whole triangle drama involving Dolidze, he is probably gonna get viciously knocked out here. I mean that's what I learned from MMA, good guys always lose. Texeira and Chucky Olives have been refreshing exceptions lately but still exceptions only.
Of course Buys has actually been getting rocked left and right in his fights, so another KO wouldn't be surprising. Montel Jackson last time around was his first decision loss, aside that it's been all finishes when he has lost. And the fact Jackson didn't finish him with the million knockdowns is pretty amazing, just cause I had bet Jackson ITD there...
Anyway Buys actually has some pretty good components to his game, but he then fucks it up by getting hit absolutely fucking clean on the face or by going for million guillotines. But to be fair Durden is susceptible to submissions, I mean he just got guillotined in his last fight so JP's bad habits might actually work to his favor this time.
All in all it should be Durden hitting Buys clean and Buys outgrappling Durden, kinda split on whether it would be more likely to be finish or not, especially after seeing the corpse of Buys making it to the final bell with Jackson. Meh. I think this could be pretty close fight but Durden probably gets it most of the time by finish.
Prediction: Cody Durden / DGTD
Bets: 1.25u Durden ITD to win 3.4u
Brian Kelleher vs. Mario Bautista
Honestly don't have very solid read. Both are scrappy, put out a decent output, but also have shown themselves to get hit quite a lot and sometimes dropped. Should be very high-pace match and I think there will be more grappling too, especially if Kelleher starts clearly losing the striking. I feel like he is the better grappler of the two but whether he can consistently tie Bautista down or on the fence... wouldn't be very confident of that.
All in all I lean on Bautista here, should be the faster, younger guy with better durability. That said this still goes distance most of the time, think Bautista rarely gets subbed and Kelleher is good at surviving if he just doesn't get one-shotted.
Prediction: Mario Bautista / GTD
Bets: 1.5u GTD to win 1.5u, 2u Bautista ML to win 1.2u
Vanessa Demopoulos vs. Jinh Yu Frey
Kinda hard to gauge how good of a wrestler Demopoulos could be, after all she never had to take her last opponent down, she ended up grappling cause she got savagely dropped. Generally thought I would say she needs pretty damn solid wrestling to get two rounds against Frey, who is also traditionally undersized but finds herself here with over 5 inch reach advantage.
Demopoulos probably doesn't get hit with the same power as in her previous fight, but Frey will have the volume on her and hit her coming in consistently to win the decision. Demopoulos' paths to victory are pretty much random sub or successfully grinding a close wrestling decision. Girls have done that to Frey but as said, you need to be pretty solid to pull that off and I am not entirely sure Demopoulos is that.
Prediction: Jinh Yu Frey / GTD
Bets: 1u Frey to win 0.4u
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