UFC on ESPN 37 Preview & Prediction

Would have liked to do more tape on some fights, but at least I did some and finally do proper previews again.

Main Event: Calvin Kattar vs. Josh Emmett

I don't know, Kattar is big favorite and rightly so, he is technically better and throws more volume... On the other hand, Emmett hits hard and Kattar took a lot of damage over his last 2 fights. Like I gotta see the odds but think that I would happy to roll the dice here with an Emmett KO, he has 25 minutes and carries his power late, and not only that, Kattar's strength is his boxing so he will have to go to Emmett's range to really dominate the fight.

That said, most of the time Kattar gets 50-45 or 49-46 here and the fight goes the distance. Emmett is tough enough that even if he is getting pieced up, he does not get finished.

Prediction: Kattar & GTD

Bets: 3.25u Emmett ITD to win 13u, 3u Kattar Dec to win 4.8u

Co-Main Event: Donald Cerrone vs. Joe Lauzon

Originally I bet this to go the distance, but perhaps in hindsight I got lucky the fight got postponed, cause when you think about it neither has shown great durability lately, and Lauzon has not fought in over two years. He does look like the less weathered of the two and can probably fight with the kind of high pressure style under which Cerrone folds.

Prediction: Lauzon & DGTD

Bets: 2.5u Lauzon ML to win 3.5u, 1u Lauzon ITD to win 3u, 0.75u Lauzon R1/2 to win 2.5u

Tim Means vs. Kevin Holland

Kevin Holland has a huge reach for the welterweight division, and faced wily veteran in Alex Oliveira in his welterweight debut. Of course, Cowboy Oliveira being the flake he is, he flaked after decent first round and Holland got the KO he wanted. 

Means is much more of a reliable veteran. You know you can expect solid, well-rounded game from him and steady output through three rounds. There's just one problem - he is 38 years old. Sure, Means is as evergreen as anyone, but against such dynamic athlete with big reach advantage... Makes you kind of think. Like 3 years ago I'd no doubt be saying this will be Means decision most of the time, now I don't know.

Means is riding a three fight win streak, however over something of a mediocre competition. Last time he faced someone who is similarly dynamic as Holland was against Price, and Price is just a crazy guy, Holland is much better fighter - and Price KOd Means.

So I am kind of leaning here that Holland finds the killshot here but honestly it's really difficult to be confident any way here. If odds are right I'd definitely roll the dice on Means grinding another decision, but think the age is a liability here. Holland didn't look great in his welterweight debut but without a doubt he is a problem.

Prediction: Holland & GTD

Bets: 0.75u Tim Means ML to win 2u.

Joaquin Buckley vs. Albert Duraev

I dunno, maybe it was just a rough debut from Duraev but he did not look that great, some random Russian kid rocked him and was able to be competitive for lot of the fight. That being said, Buckley didn't look so great last time either.

We haven't really seen Buckley against anyone who grapples urgently like Duraev probably will here. Standing it should be competitive and if Kopylov could crack Duraev, Buckley for sure can as well. Duraev has been KOd by much lesser guys in his career, and although it's been long time, I wouldn't be surprised with a Buckley KO here.

On the other hand Buckley can be grinded down and finished late. Either way think this gets settled inside the distance.

Prediction: Buckley & DGTD

Bets: 1.25u Buckley KO to win 3.4u

Damir Ismagulov vs. Guram Kutateladze

Very solid match-up but very hard one to predict as well. Ismagulov is one of the underrated fighters, good everywhere, grinded out a victory last time out after getting hurt early. Kutateladze surprised everyone with very good performance against Gamrot, fell only a little short. Gamrot has gone on to be one of the exciting prospects of the division, meanwhile Kutateladze just has not been fighting since.

So yea, who knows what kind of Kutateladze shows up. He should show up vastly improved from what was already good level of performance, or it could be that it was his one off bright spot of the career what we saw in last fight. I lean towards the former, really would like to see Kutateladze come good here.

Both guys durable so expect pretty consistently to be a decision.

Prediction: Ismagulov & GTD

Bets: 1.25u Kutateladze ML to win 1.9u

Julian Marquez vs. Gregory Rodrigues

I love Obama but he is kind of medium everything. Has some power, scores the occasional knockout. Has some grappling, gets the occasional sub, and has a medium volume, so he has a chance in decisions too. Think that last fight against Petrosyan showed however that he does tend to fall in short in that numbers game generally.

He is for sure gonna lose the numbers game against Marquez here. Marquez is like the opposite, somewhat limited in skillset, but throws a lot of volume.

This should be fun match-up. Both guys like to pressure and really commit to their punches so if we see something of a high, midtempo striking match, it's likely someone's gonna go down and I would give durability edge easily to Marquez. Also he has lot of late finishing upside, G-Rod tends to slow down as the fights go deep and I think Marquez is gonna keep him uncomfortable a lot here to really expose that.

Prediction: Marquez & DGTD

Bets: 2.5u Marquez ML to win 4u, 1u Marquez ITD to win 2.75u, 0.75u G-Rod KO1/2 to win 2.75u

Adrian Yanez vs. Tony Kelley

Everyone's favorite fighter Kelley just can't help himself, just keeps winning over more fans by missing the weight for this one. 

Everyone obviously thinks Yanez will KO here, having faced the tougher competition and won and generally having looked better, but also there's emotions in play, lot of people want Kelley to be KO'd here. Don't think it will be quite so simple but I do have to agree Yanez is favorite for a reason. 

For Kelley to make this competitive, he will have to make it an ugly and grinding fight. No one lately has been able to make fights against Yanez like that, but Kelley did exactly that against Costa last time out. Expect him to go face first and force the clinch. He is either gonna get KO'd or make it a close fight with cage control. Again, probably good spot to roll the dice with high odds.

Yanez the side I think will win, but Kelley the betting side. Either way I think lot of damage will be landed, some of the time it will be Yanez dec, some time KO. Kelley is durable so think it will be bloody mess but goes the distance a lot of the time.

Prediction: Adrian Yanez & GTD

Bets: 1.25u Kelley ML to win 3u

Jasmine Jasudavicius vs. Natalia Cristina da Silva

Jasudavicius seems solid enough that she should be able to handle random Brazilian armbar girl off the regional scene. Think it also goes the distance, this Brazilian chick went the distance with Marina Rodriguez in 2017 so even if she finds herself failing to get the armbar she is unlikely to be absolutely crushed.

Pretty binary in that way, Jasudavicius dec or Da Silva sub.

Prediction: Jasudavicius & GTD

Bets: 0.5u Silva sub to win 3u

Court McGee vs. Jeremiah Wells

Similar dynamic to that Means vs. Holland match-up, McGee the vet that should grind out the decision most of the time here. Wells has couple of early finishes in UFC but he isn't exactly young either. McGee might be 37 but he is tough to finish. At some point the wheels will fall off but don't think Wells should be the guy to do that.

McGee has been pretty reliable to go the distance as well.

Prediction: Court McGee & GTD

Bets: 1u McGee ML to win 0.85u

Ricardo Ramos vs. Danny Chavez

I like Ramos, he always put on exciting fights and is skilled everywhere. The problem is that he fades and can be a bit chinny as well. Fading shouldn't be a problem here, Chavez is generally very content to fight a low-volume, counter style, but I am concerned that Ramos is gonna run into something here.

Still this should be winnable fight for Ramos as long as he doesn't randomly die. While Chavez is powerful, he isn't urgent enough to consistently score a finish here. Ramos will probably make it a little bit higher tempo fight than that Kamaka fight was, but Chavez should have lost that one as well.

Prediction: Ricardo Ramos & GTD

Bets: 0.75u Chavez ITD to win 3.75u

Maria Oliveira vs. Gloria De Paula 

GDP showed improvements in that Belbita match-up, looked pretty good actually although it was a very close decision in the end. Think that should be enough here given this is pretty much as low level match-up as you gonna see in UFC.

Oliveira doesn't have much in the way of takedown defence and gets caught with clean strikes. GDP should be clearly better everywhere, though this is WMMA so who knows, might become sloppy close match where split decision decides everything.

Prediction: Gloria De Paula & GTD

Bets: 1.5u De Paula ML to win 0.5u 

Eddie Wineland vs. Cody Stamann

Not even worth taping. Both guys on a skid but Stamann more just getting edged by high-level competition, whereas Wineland is old and has gotten finished back to back in the first round. Stamann might not be as big of a finishing threat as Castaneda but he is much better everywhere else, don't see where Wineland has a shot here aside getting a fluke KO.

Stamann has decent chance of scoring a finish here but if I have to guess which it is, I still think it's more likely he gets the grinding decision than takes chances with big stand-up exchanges.

Prediction: Stamann & GTD

Bets: 1.5u Stamann KO to win 4u

Phil Hawes vs. Deron Winn

Hawes is the ultimate flake I guess? Just having his way completely with Curtis and then just getting finished within seconds. I dunno but Winn sucks, guess he is gonna catch something like that but honestly this should be absolute massacre for Hawes. This is MMA though and this is the kind of match-up that you can absolutely expect weirdness from.

I'd say Hawes is very likely to be so far ahead of Winn that this is going to be a finish and maybe quick too, but to be fair Hawes isn't GM3 level sub threat and Winn has never been finished with strikes, given that he can make it a clinch fight if he gets in trouble and can take shot. Either way I expect him to be taking too many shots here if Lumpinee Hawes shows up again.

Prediction: Hawes & DGTD

Bets: 3.5u Hawes ML to win 1.4u, 1.5u Hawes ITD to win 2u, 2u FDGTD to win 1.6u

Roman Dolidze vs. Kyle Daukaus

This is gonna be largely a grappling match where it matters so my reads aren't strongest. Daukaus is the longer guy, but Dolidze much thicker and stronger. Still Dolidze just comes off as limited overall when all he could do with Staropoli was lean on him against the cage. He won't be able to do that against Daukaus and I think Daukaus is still the better striker. 

From what I have seen these guys should be pretty closely matched in all the key wrestling positions. What Daukaus loses in strength, he might gain in technique. Dolidze seems pretty happy to get taken down and play leg locks off his back. I don't think sub either way would be a bad shout given we should see plenty of grappling here.

Dolidze seems bigger KO threat than Daukaus, and Dolidze has seemed pretty good at taking a shot so far in his UFC career, so not really expecting anyone to get a KO here. 

Prediction: Kyle Daukaus & GTD

Bets: 0.5u Dolidze Sub, to win 4.5u, 1u GTD to win 0.8u