UFC 276 Post-Fight Analysis

Actually had a solid winning event for once.

Main Card

Gotta be honest about the main event... I don't think it was as bad as lot of the Adesanya fights lately have been, but the calls for snoozefest aren't completely unfounded as it was still relatively tactical fight, and I did actually fall asleep during the fight. I did read Adesanya got the decision which seems reasonable, he was edging the rounds I saw.

I predicted Max v Volk to be like the previous two fights. We had seen 10 relatively close rounds up until that point, and I expected more of the same... Well, although I picked the right winner, I was completely wrong, there was not a single round that was even remotely close. Volk gave Max a beating and won every round by wide margin. Legendary performance. Volk needs to go to 155 to find a challenge.

Sean Strickland did exactly the crazy thing you'd think he would do and just stood toe to toe with Alex Pereira. He did well too, parrying, blocking and evading strikes... until he didn't and with Poatan there is just no margin for error. Strickland got put out in the first which is unfortunate, just when he was starting to get some recognition. Oh well, the guy is still a legit maniac which is why he did not grapple urgently.

Robbie Lawler was looking good for about 1.5 rounds, but guess Barberena's crazy cardio eventually got him. Both were landing, but Lawler was landing the clean power strikes more often. However Barberena was ultimately the one to get the most significant one in. Lawler got rocked and never seemed to recover, turning into standing zombie until ref stepped in. No major regrets in taking shot on the Lawler KO there.

Main card opener was pretty lackluster fight between Sean O'Malley and Pedro Munhoz. Munhoz showed up not putting the normal pressure he usually does, guess cause he realized if he gets touched up like usual, O'Malley is gonna put him out. Either way it sort of worked cause O'Malley did not get much going on in the fight either.

After close 1.5 rounds or so, Suga accidentally eyepoked Munhoz and the fight was ruled a no contest. Ho hum, no desire whatsoever to see that rebooked. We learned Sean looks low-volume and limited against top level fighters but that he probably beats Munhoz most of the time in this match-up. 

Prelims 

In the featured prelim Jalin Turner did exactly what I expected him to do - hurt Brad Riddell early, made him panic wrestle, and it was just what you'd expect from kickboxer wrestling - he left himself open for Turner to wrap something up. Turner finished the choke for very quick finish. Literally no one out there who Turner could not beat early on, but of course if you can take him deep, top guys will most likely still edge fights against him.

Jim Miller did not get the job done in the first against Cowboy, which prevented me from cashing big, but he finally did catch Cowboy with a submission in the second. Cowboy was... Meh, I mean not terrible and completely cooked, but did not really show much either. He retired after the fight which is the right call to make. As for Miller, we are gonna see him being a gatekeeper for few more fights.

Gabriel Green came to fight and stayed the whole match on Ian Garry's face, but Garry put in perhaps the most impressive performance of his UFC career so far, even if he did not get the finish. He kept sniping, showed good stamina, stayed calm even when having some adversity and his striking defence seemed improved. He might be cringy guy but he can fight for sure.

Brad Tavares and Dricus Du Plessis gave us plenty of violence just as was ordered. Somehow it went the distance despite both of them getting hit with a lot of clean shots. No regrets on betting big FDGTD there with near even money, no way that doesn't finish there at least 60% of the time. Especially if Du Plessis isn't a dummy that wastes a ton of gas tank with early grappling instead of winging big shots at Tavares.

Du Plessis has poor fundamentals and suspect fight IQ, but nonetheless he got the nod and ultimately deserved it for landing lot more damage.

Fading fast finish from Muniz turned out to be the correct assessment of the Muniz v Hall fight. Hall gassed super fast, but him flaking somehow is nothing new. He was still good enough to survive all the Muniz submission attempts. Honestly in the end I way overrated Muniz, Hall was the flake he always is but the fact Muniz couldn't even go that close to finish him just goes to show how Muniz really is not all that.

Maycee Barber had her way with Jessica Eye in almost completely dominant manner. Eye got very little offence of her own going, and the only blemish in Barber's victory was the top control Eye had in the 2nd round. Still gotta work on those getups, otherwise better grapplers than Eye will just dominate.

The opener of the night was quickly over as Stoliarenko mangled Jessica Rose-Clark's arm in about a minute. JRC actually started the fight pretty strong, but as soon as it hit the mat the fight was all over, looked pretty nasty.

My picks

I made a profit of roughly 6 units on the event, getting 8 out of 19 bets right. Best bet of the night was easily Turner R1/2, looked almost inevitable in hindsight, and for once I had a reasonably big bet on it with good + money. Worst bet... well, wanna say Eye but that was just a tiny punt at plus money so I can't hate it too much. So I guess Muniz fast sub was bad consider not good odds and big-ish bet.

I don't think I got particularly lucky with any bets in the event, but definitely was unlucky to not see a finish in the Du Plessis v Tavares fight after all the violence. 

As for my pre-fight leans, my picks went 10 out of 11, only wrong pick being Green, and even that I figured to be very close to 50/50 and I might have picked Garry in a bit different moment, I mean I ended up betting Garry ITD anyway. So overall the reads for the fights were pretty solid. For GTD/DGTD picks, I only got 5 out of 11, which is pretty bad, should be getting at least half of those right. Again a good reminder I should stick to picking winners for the most part.

I also think I missed an opportunity to not have a little sprinkle on Jalin by sub, no idea what the odds would have been but given the fight went exactly how I predicted and I had feeling Jalin would finish by sub, that ought to have been a good bet.

Not a massive win by any means, but it's still good to snap up the losing streak and with better luck, it could have been 10u win. Good to go on from this.