UFC 276 Preview & Predictions

Didn't really go above and beyond this week, more gut feeling it. Let's see if I can turn the rough luck lately around or is the bad form gonna continue...

Main Event: Israel Adesanya vs. Jared Cannonier

Well, Jared has some chance I suppose, but obviously working off of big skill deficit here and needing to just land something big early, either to rock Izzy or damage his leg or something. If they start exchanging leg kicks I fully expect Izzy to be able to give as much as he takes though, but yea, anything might happen if Jared can make it a little chaotic.

Not seeing how Izzy would lose a decision though unless Jared can make it an ugly clinchfight. Is Cannonier as big as Jan? Probably not, and I would imagine Izzy has further worked on getting out of grappling situations since that fight. But yea, suppose Cannonier can make it at least kind of dirty if he mixes in lot of clinching, but ultimately I doubt he can sustain a high wrestling pace enough to win the fight, just potentially to limit damage if he is getting completely outstruck.

At the same time, I can't help feeling Izzy is just so much better that he might get a finish. That said, you can't really trust him to go after the opponent so Jared would have to get reckless after being 3-1 or 4-0 down to really get KOd. So I suppose this is gonna be Izzy decision most of the time.

Prediction: Izzy/GTD

Bets: 5u Izzy ML to win 1.2u

Co-Main Event: Alex Volkanovski vs. Max Holloway

Not much to write here. Some rematches are not like the previous match-ups, but this time I fully expect it to be another 5 razor thin rounds. So smart bettors will bet on the underdog, I haven't looked the odds but Alex ought to be favorite... However, I have bet Max both times and got no luck with the decision... so guess if I have to take a loss I'm gonna bet Alex just so I can get the series to 2-1 which would be much fairer reflection on how tight the fights have been than Alex going up 3-0.

Max has been talking about there being no decision this time so he might be also going fully insane here and really pushing crazy pace. So figures this might have higher chance to be a stoppage. That said, both of these guys seem very hard to finish. Volk has more power but Max has legendary durability, though you always wonder when will all those strikes absorbed catch up to him.

Prediction: Volk/GTD

Bets: 2.5u Volk ML to win 1.3u

Sean Strickland vs. Alex Pereira

I don't know, I kind of feel similarly of this match-up than I feel of the Magny v Shavkat match, obviously one guy more dynamic and powerful, but other is durable, tough and able to fight an ugly fight.

Strickland has pretty solid striking defence. I dunno, I want to pick him but at the same time gut is telling me Pereira is gonna KO him just like they want him to. Strickland obviously not outstriking Pereira, but he might make it an ugly clinchfight, keep the latter two rounds close and steal them on output, or positional control. 

Would be surprised to see Sean KO Pereira for sure. Some chance of a Strickland sub if Sean shows up willing to grapple, either way Pereira will probably make him want to grapple...

Prediction: Pereira/GTD

Bets: 3u Pereira KO/TKO to win 4.8u, 1.5u Strickland submission to win 13.5u

Robbie Lawler vs. Bryan Barberena

Why is it that Barberena isn't even that old but it's like he doesn't even have much left in the tank any more? Looking at the ages of the guys Barberena should have it all day, Lawler was going back and forth with fat and off the couch Diaz... Then again, that\s not to say Barberena wouldn't go back and forth with Diaz as well.

Think Barberena just grinds an ugly decision, but it's really hard to feel confident either way here. 

Prediction: Barberena/GTD

Bets: 1u Lawler TKO/KO/DQ to win 3.75u

Pedro Munhoz vs. Sean O'Malley

Well, it's toughest fight for O'Malley so far, but as far as high profile fighters go, it is also the most winnable match-up for him. Munhoz has the output and toughness but gets hit with everything and O'Malley is a sniper.

So yea guess it can be a little bit dodgy fight for Sean but he wins it more often than not. Pretty close to 50/50 for me whether it goes the distance or not, Munhoz is hittable and O'Malley has shown power, but so far Munhoz has absorbed worse things in his career so think you have to lean on it being a decision.

Prediction: O'Malley/GTD

Bets: 2u O'Malley decision to win 3.4u

Brad Riddell vs. Jalin Turner

Love watching Riddell fight but surely he is getting nuked here? I don't think his fight style has translated well to MMA, he just gets touched up too much. Makes for exciting fight for sure, but against a powerful striker like Turner, I see him getting knocked out. It took a spin kick to KO him against Fiziev, but you never know, might not take that much against Turner. 

It's gonna be kill or be killed fight for sure, I did mention Riddell being defensively suspect but that's not to say Turner can't get hurt either. I do strongly favor Turner early but really anyone can get KO here any time, both guys are all about offence and less about defence. Durability is in the end on Riddell's side.

Prediction: Turner/DGTD

Bets: 2.5u Turner R1/2 to win 5.6u, 2u under 1.5 to win 2.2u, 4u FDGTD to win 2u

Jim Miller vs. Donald Cerrone

Cerrone won the first fight all those years ago, but don't think it counts for much now. Since then Cerrone has been pretty much figured out, and Miller can implement that style of a fight. Furthermore, while both are obviously badly faded, Cerrone seems far more cooked. Miller is probably gonna take care of business quickly. 

If he doesn't though, it could definitely look like a close fight. 

Prediction: Miller/DGTD

Bets: 2u Miller R1/2 to win 3.25u, 1u Miller R1 to win 2.75u, 0.5u Miller R1 sub to win 3u. 

Also by mistake bet Miller R1 KO for the half unit. 

Ian Garry vs. Gabriel Green

I'm a broken record here but Garry is physically talented, powerful individual, but still has very poor striking defence. Green is less durable, less powerful, but he actually has some fighting skill and even is susceptible to get rocked, he can fight a grueling fight. This is not gonna be an easy out for Garry unless he gets another highlight KO. Think you have to fade Garry on every step of the way though if he does not show a clear improvement.

Prediction: Green/DGTD

Bets: 1u Garry ITD to win 1.8u

Brad Tavares vs. Dricus Du Plessis

I don't really know about this one, but Du Plessis pushes for violence every time and Tavares, while being an overall solid fighter, has shown some degree of vulnerability to being knocked out. 

Prediction: Du Plessis/DGTD

Bets: 1.5u Du Plessis ITD to win 1.9u, 4u FDGTD to win 3.6u

Uriah Hall vs. Andre Muniz

Seems Hall would be pretty easy fade here. He sometimes just totally flakes, and Muniz is a lethal grappler. Finish more than likely. If Muniz fails with grappling and Hall shows up, we could also see another highlight KO. 

If Muniz doesn't get the quick sub things could get really muddled fast for him, but I think vast majority of the time he is either getting that sub or winning a decision largely off of grappling success. 

Prediction: Muniz/DGTD

Bets: 2u Muniz R1 Sub to win 4.5u, 0.85u Uriah Hall by points to win 7.6u

Jessica Eye vs. Maycee Barber

Ehh, no strong feelings here. Barber younger and more physical, Eye can probably edge close rounds with veteran savvy. Lean Barber and don't think anyone's getting finished.

Prediction: Barber/GTD

Bets: 0.5u Eye ML to win 1.2u

Jessica-Rose Clark vs. Julija Stoliarenko

Clark the more skilled fighter, but not by so much that tough and grinding fighter in Stoliarenko can't make it an ugly UD.

Prediction: Stoliarenko/GTD

Bets: 0.5u Stoliarenko ML to win 0.7u

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