UFC Fight Night 208 Post-Fight Analysis

Despite getting most of my picks right, I got absolutely massacred in UFC London. Just retarded bets in the end.

Main Card

Main event was another one of those random events that has been plaguing me lately, but to be fair even Aspinall win was not gonna stop the event from being terrible for me. We didn't really get to see anything to know how the fight would have gone, but either way the Unders looked good, the both guys went after it right away.

Curtis called Hermansson goofy but I think him taking beating while doing his best Romero impression was the goofy thing. Hermansson showed there is levels to this game, and at best Curtis is a guy who beats lower level  UFC guys. This one was particularly painful bet to get wrong, cause I correctly thought Hermansson would be busier and edge close decision most of the time, but somehow ended up still making decisively the wrong bet.

Paddy showed everyone that he was better than Leavitt everywhere and finished him in the 2nd. One of the easier picks of the night, it was all just a question of if Leavitt could make the distance or not, and it didn't really look likely, Leavitt was in trouble the whole time. Paddy has flaws, but he is gonna beat guys who aren't big striking threats.

Krylov came out of the gates fast and murdered Gustafsson. Safe to say the guy's done, Krylov hurt him with almost every clean shot he landed.

Molly McCann got set-up a softball with Hannah Goldy and knocked it out of the park.

Craig and Volkan had a pretty incoherent fight, so obviously we did not get a finish but Volkan clearly won the fight and had Craig rocked couple of times, but the man's tough to finish when no-one dares to follow-up. Not a good spot for me to lay the chalk on the FDGTD, poor one. 

Prelims

I need to stop betting on Mason Jones. As usual, I was balls deep on him, and for once I don't get bailed out. Mason gets hurt in every fight and fights like a retard, Klein with the intelligent, technical fight to get the deserved decision. Up until this point of the night, I had gotten every GTD/ITD pick right, but I get it wrong on the one that I actually bet and bet big on.

Marc Diakiese put on a top control clinic against Damir Hadzovic. Got that one wrong, it wasn't even remotely close fight, Hadzovic basically no chance. As chalky as Diakiese's odds were, he probably was still huge value in hindsight. 

Typically for my ITD bets, Wood absolutely butchered Rosa, but failed to finish the tough Bostonian. Wood looked small next to Rosa but utilized his size and speed well to dominate the match. Again I expected it to go the distance but played the number, Wood at least gave it as good shot as he could, but like I surmised, Rosa is tough and good at hanging in there. Should have believed myself once again.

Amirkhani sold out looking for that R1 sub, had no gas left in the second and got pounded to finish. Should have bet FDGTD, but guess the odds wouldn't have been great. Either way some back-up against obvious Amirkhani gas out would have been nice, I called that once again but did not make any adjustments to my bets based on it.

Charles Johnson never had a chance of winning a decision against Mohamed Mokaev anyway, as he got controlled for full three rounds and best offence he got going was tenderizing Mokaev's thigh with elbows. My one rare good bet in the event.

Kyle Nelson started strong but faded in the 2nd and thus lost a decision against Jai Herbert. Herbert's chin was not tested too much but whatever Nelson landed clean, the chin still seemed to be there. 

Bohm and Leonardo had shitshow tier fight that did not suprise anyone, neither really got much coherent offence going, in the end judges scored it for the more aggressive Victoria Leonardo. 

Night opened exactly as expected with Nicolas Dalby failing to finish the corpse of Claudio Silva. Silva stays unfinished despite deathgassing in every fight.

My bets

-19.25u, 9/13 picks right, 8/13 GTD/ITD right. Despite calling most of the fights correctly, I was just not finding any right bets. Mokaev decision looked like a masterstroke, but that's one of the few bets that actually hit. Aside that everything kept missing, obviously the big bets on Mason being the worst ones of the night. The man is just not someone you can trust your money on. 

Lot of the other prelim bets that missed weren't that bad in the end, at least the bets were largely live and on big numbers, among the bigger bets Volkan/Craig was poor bet with bigger exposure to win very little money when in hindsight, it wasn't that surprising that the fight would go the distance after both getting hurt multiple times. 

Generally the problem continues to be kind of senseless bet selection. When you lose this big chunks of your bankroll in one event though, there's bigger issues at play than that. Still when I read my fight predictions armed with the hindsight, they weren't largely that far off. I just chased numbers on wrong spots. I had my reads on point, but got greedy and lured to bet the wrong choices. That's the game we play and I played it poorly.

Ironic that in hindsight, if I am gonna blast massive bets on a British fighter, it should have been Pimblett and not Mason. Diakiese decision another absolutely lock bet that I missed out on, though suppose it wouldn't have been very good odds.

I don't know, maybe it just was a hard card for betting but my exposure for next event will have to be lower simply due to bankroll reasons and I might be headed for another reload soon. I've not made my usual mistakes lately which is betting emotionally, I just have made poor bets. It stings when you feel like you're not calling the fights that badly, but not getting it right where it matters.

Like it's actually low-key impressive that I manage to make the wrong picks so consistently despite clearly starting to understand fights better.