UFC Fight Night 208 Preview & Predictions

Fun card in London, let's quickly go through the fights. 

Main Event: Curtis Blaydes vs. Tom Aspinall

Binary fight, but big questionmark on how Aspinall deals with wrestling and getting taken deep. On the other hand, Blaydes does have poor set-ups and could get just nuked on the entry. In the end I'm gonna play the only play that's for sure gonna be live, Aspinall early. Even if Blaydes could gas him out and outwrestle him, he might still run into something early and get put out. 

Prediction: Aspinall / ITD
Bets: 1u Asp R1 to win 4u, 3u under 2.5 rounds to win 2.4u, 2u Asp R1/2/3 to win 3.4u

Co-Main Event: Jack Hermansson vs. Chris Curtis

Curtis ain't that great but he keeps getting great match-ups for himself, his skillset of having decent boxing and good takedown defence works out pretty well for him. Expect him to be able to keep this mostly on the feet where it ends up being pretty close, high volume striking battle that could go either way. Both guys very durable so would be surprised if there's a finish. Close to 50/50, would give tiny edge for Hermansson for being more rounded.

Prediction: Hermansson / GTD
Bets: 0.75u Curtis Dec to win 2.3u

Paddy Pimblett vs. Jordan Leavitt
We all wanna see Leavitt twerking on Pimblett's corpse, but realistically, how's Leavitt gonna win this? He is drawing dead to a sub, Pimblett gets hit with everything but Leavitt doesn't have the kind of power to give him trouble, and even if Leavitt is winning the MMA game, no way is Pimblett losing a decision in London if the fight is any semblance of close. 

Prediction: Pimblett / GTD
Bets: 1u Pimblett to win 0.4u

Nikita Krylov vs. Alexander Gustafsson
I'm ready for Krylov to disappoint me again. Gustafsson since the comeback has been bit of an on-off fighter, don't really trust him against someone who's gonna be busier.

Prediction: Krylov / GTD
Bets: 1u Krylov to win 0.5u

Hannah Goldy vs. Molly McCann
Goldy sucks but... It's Molly McCann, we ain't gonna lay chalk on her. Probably Goldy drawing dead to a sub or KO for same reasons as Leavitt, but with that plus number I am willing to take a little punt on her. 
Prediction: McCann / GTD
Bets: 1u Goldy to win 3.5u

Paul Craig vs. Volkan Oezdemir
You look at Volkan's last 7 fight and that's basically who's who of the division, the only big fights he is still missing are Texeira and Jones, everything else he has basically faced and as you would expect, it's been rough after facing such a murderer's row. 

So he definitely should be favored against Craig who is the inferior striker and MMA fighter in general. The problem is, you could be on top of Craig, battering him on the face, and you're only exactly where he wants you to be and next moment your limbs are getting broken. 

So Craig via asspull or Oezdemir brutalization. Either way, probably won't see a decision, Craig willing to get KO'd to try to get a submission. Craig by sub line is kind of steamed, especially since I think there's some chance for a random KO on his end too. 

Prediction: Volkan / ITD
Bets: 2u FDGTD to win 0.6u.

Ludovit Klein vs. Mason Jones
Jones gonna pressure and put a hurting on Klein or Klein gonna catch him with something coming in. Either way should be fun violence. 

Prediction: Jones / ITD
Bets: 4u Jones ITD to win 4.4u, 1.4u Jones Sub to win 7.7u, 4.5u FDGTD to win 2.4u

Marc Diakiese vs. Damir Hadzovic
Skill for skill one of the better fights of the card. Diakiese should have edges everywhere here, but think it's close enough fight to take a punt on Hadzovic. They are both good fighters. That said, I ain't gonna be expecting any favors in the decisions against the locals, so gonna play Hadzovic via finish. If Rafa Alves can sub Diakiese, no reason Damir would not be able to pull something like that too.

Prediction: Diakiese / GTD
Bets: 0.5u Hadzovic ITD to win 2.25u

Nathaniel Wood vs. Charles Rosa
Rosa has been figured out lately it seems, and I think Wood is one of the underrated guys in the bantamweight division, should have Rosa covered everywhere. If Wood covers his number, he can finish Rosa for sure. As said, he is figured out and aging, whereas Wood might show up even better than before, definitely live to sub Rosa and random KO chance is higher too. I dunno, really hard for me to see Wood to fuck it up definitely, and hard to really be confident for Wood finish as he hasn't been that big of a finisher traditionally and Rosa usually been good at gutting it out even if getting dominated. Still am ready to roll the dice with the number.

Prediction: Wood / GTD
Bets: 1.5u Wood ITD to win 3.15u

Makwan Amirkhani vs. Jonathan Pearce
Big percent of Makwan's win condition is R1 sub, some chance of sub later, tiny chance of KO, generally the man only has round and a change of cardio, not expecting that to change. If the fight goes deep Pearce smashes probably but Makwan is so dangerous when he wraps his hands around you and I think Pearce will give him enough opportunities for that.

Prediction: Makwan / ITD
Bets: 0.75u Makwan R1 Sub to win 5.65u, 1u Makwan sub to win 3.75u

Mohammad Mokaev vs. Charles Johnson
Mokaev has lot of hype behind him but let's not get too carried away yet. He went to a decision with some guy named Abdul Hussein just bit over a year ago. Unless Hussein is some regional goat, and judging from his Sherdog pic he isn't, that's not that great of a sign. 

Johnson seems like a pretty competent fighter so there's no reason this should be easy fight for Mokaev, especially considering Johnson has never been finished and has gone distance with high-pace grappler in Royval. If Mokaev were to just blaze through Johnson that'd be very impressive. 

Again I don't see anyone winning a decision against the home guys so most likely Mokaev will win this via points. 

Prediction: Mokaev / GTD
Bets: 1u Mokaev Dec to win 1.8u, 0.5u Johnson R3 to win 12u

Jai Herbert vs. Kyle Nelson
General MMA rule of thumb: always bet on the saddest outcome. Herbert was an interesting prospect, but he got absolutely deathkilled in his last fight, and saddest possible outcome here is that Nelson just clips him and he goes stiff having no chin any more. 

Expecting Herbert to poke away and win minutes, but to be live to be KO'd randomly. Hopefully his chin holds up. In that case, Nelson needs to grapple to make it a sweaty decision, but don't think you're getting cagepushing decision against Englishman in London. Will see.

Prediction: Herbert / GTD
Bets: 0.75u Nelson KO/TKO to win 4.85u.

Mandy Bohm vs. Victoria Leonardo
Low level women's MMA. Don't care, just blind bet on the odds and cause MagicMMA gave it out so it's hilarious if it doesn't hit.

Prediction: Bohm/GTD
Bets: 1u Leonardo ITD to win 3.5u

Claudio Silva vs. Nicolas Dalby
Silva is completely cooked but has still never been finished. Dalby not great, but competent everywhere still and should handle business, but probably gonna fail to get the finish. I think Silva is due to get randomly killed already, the guy's been done as a fighter forever. Still more than likely Dalby just plays safe and has little bit more output.

Prediction: Dalby/GTD
Bets: 1.25u Dalby KO/TKO to win 2.5u, 0.55u Silva Sub to win 3.4u



Kommentit

Lähetä kommentti

Tämän blogin suosituimmat tekstit

UFC Fight Night 198 Preview & Predictions

Main Event: Ketlen Vieira vs. Miesha Tate Don't know, don't care. Tate looked great last time around, but I don't know how much weight you can put on beating someone who was a career journeyman in her 40s. Vieira is step-up from that, although she isn't top level fighter either, she is at least closer to her prime and should be able to compete. General heuristic for me is that the game has evolved from 2015 days and that you can't come back to compete at elite level in this sport after being out, so let's go by that and pick Vieira. Prediction: Ketlen Vieira Confidence in winner: 1 Co-Main Event: Michael Chiesa vs. Sean Brady Brady is pretty good, but been unspectacular so far, just kinda tightly edging most of his opponents. Chiesa is far more battle-tested of the two and has the grappling edge here. It's gonna be a close fight, but if people are gonna be favoring Brady so heavily here, Chiesa ought to be quite easy pick. I don't really see Chiesa getti...
Lue lisää

UFC Fight Night 172 Preview & Predictions

I am exhausted, wrote almost all of these straight. Main Event: Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Joseph Benavidez Sometimes when two people rematch there is reasons to think it won't go exactly like it went the first time, such as when Conor fought Diaz for the 2nd time, or the recent Volkanovski v Holloway rematch. This is not one of those times though, it's a fight where first time went pretty much how I called it and there is little reason to think anything changes this time around. Benavidez is the more intelligent, technical fighter, I suppose. He is also 35 years old and got KOd by Figueiredo last time around. Figueiredo is very powerful for the weight class and for his size, and his size is barely able to make 125, indeed which is why we are having this rematch, since he missed the weight last time around. So all the physical advantages are with Figueiredo, who also got chance to figure out the timing of Benavidez last time around, so won't need to feel around so much ...
Lue lisää

UFC Fight Night 190 Post-Fight Analysis

Not the most exciting card by any means. About average event for me in terms of results, tiny bit of winnings thanks to main event and co-main event hitting. Main Card Cyril Gane shut out Volkov according to some scorecards. I don't think the decision should have been quite that wide, but it was clear Gane took over during the five rounds of the fight. He doesn't have spectacular wins over anyone, but Gane doesn't make mistakes and is very skilled, tough guy to beat. Volkov couldn't really take full advantage of his reach, but largely shut out any grappling exchanges.  The co-main was largely a forgettable fight even if Boser got the finish there. Boser got the first round with steady volume and OSP doing fuck all, and in the second when OSP started to grapple he had some success but promptly got KOd after that. OSP just isn't very good, all-in all.  Valiev and Barcelos fought to a close decision. Barcelos had Valiev badly hurt in the second, but somehow only one ju...
Lue lisää