UFC on ABC 3 Post-Fight Analysis

Honestly the fights were largely very good in the event even if the ending was a little lackluster.

Main Card

The main event was bit of a dud as after a promising start, Ortega dislocated his shoulder and fight was over. Really random outcome, it did look like it was gonna be a close one and that the submission was live,  as Ortega was for once actually proactively looking to grapple. Rodriguez was winning the stand-up exchanges so anything might have happened if the fight went on.

Michelle Waterson might have a new name but still up to her old tricks, fighting carefully on the outside and grappling when the opportunity arises. That was working for it looked like he at least had a shout to winning the first round. However in the second she got stuck in a tight guillotine and that was all it took. 

Li Jingliang and Muslim Salikhov had the low-volume fight we expected. It was a questionmark whether Salikhov's age would finally show and indeed it did show, as Leech managed to rock him and finish him late in the 2nd.

Sumudaerji KO'd Schnell like 4 times after a slow start, but somehow zombified Schnell stayed in the fight while out on his feet, and eventually recovered to submit probably gassed out Sumudaerji. Super random fight, but you always knew Schnell had some chance to pull something off, just did not expect it to be in that manner.

Speaking of rallies, Charles Jourdain had a massive third round rally against Shane Burgos, hitting about 100 strikes in absolutely crazy output. Wasn't enough to finish Burgos who has a block for a head nor enough to change the fact he got kind of outmuscled in the first two rounds, so he lost the decision.

I'm not one to get amped up about women's MMA generally speaking, but gotta be honest Tate and Murphy put on a very fun, grueling fight where both got plenty busted up. After a war the judges deemed Lauren Murphy the winner unanimously. Think everyone can agree with that, Murphy more than matched Tate's strength and Tate looked a little slow as a flyweight.

Prelims

Dalcha Lungiambula had a great first round, but as usual it probably took lot out of his gas tank. Hard to say though cause 2nd did not go on very long before Puna landed cllean and put Dalcha on his face on the mat. Dalcha should not feel too bad about losing though, he has a bright career ahead of him selling leg workouts.

Ricky Simon absolutely smashed Jack Shore. Dominated first round (what were those live odds? Simon still had + number after dominating the first! Gift of a line if I have ever seen one, too bad I did not watch the fights live), then hurt and finished Shore in the 2nd. I don't really know why people were being so confident about Shore, at best I was seeing him tightly edging Simon here, but there was always possibility of what happened, which is that gets found out.

In hindsight should have just bet Burns R1 submission, cause he burned all his gas in first round going hard for the submission. 0% of the submission possibility was left in the second round. ITD was the bet for that fight as well as Algeo moneyline.

Da Un Jung and Dustin Jacoby had a fun fight while it lasted. Jacoby landed flush straight cross and Jung went momentarily unconscious, waking up as he hit the floor but ref did not allow any follow-up shots to come. Don't really mind the stoppage, initially thought it was bit fast but if guy goes out it's always fair to stop it. 

Dustin Stoltzfus looks so awkward and slow standing so long-term he is gonna be a fade, but he did plenty enough to earn a decision against Dwight Grant. 

Emily Ducote showed good fight IQ and put on a leg kicking clinic on Jessica Penne, thus making a fight that could have been close look very wide. Easily covered her odds. 

My picks

7/12 for winner picks, 7/12 for GTD/ITD picks. +2.2u on bets. It's a bummer cause I was up over 10u at best, but as usual, I got cleaned up on the main card and the biggest bet in Sumudaerji KO missed. I don't know if I can call it a bad bet though cause it was very live, certainly if you told me he is gonna have Schnell rocked like 4 times, I would have hammered him even harder. Just one of those random things. 

Penne was the only genuinely bad bet. Everything else either hit, was live to hit, or was small punt anyway. Can't help but to feel a little bit unlucky in the end to not win more. 

But on the good news, that Simon bet was my 2nd biggest of the night and it looked very sharp in hindsight.

There wasn't really a lot of close scorecards of random chaotic KOs in the event, if anything I just felt Sumudaerji failing to get Schnell out of there and instead gassing was big unlucky, and perhaps Jourdain too not managing to hit the killshot on Burgos during that crazy final round rally. And yeah, the main event was super random and unlucky.

So feels like a downswing, but in the end good to finish on the green and to call most of the fights correctly. That's what this is all about after all, would be good to make some money as well, but if the fights play out closely to what you expect, that is already progress. 

We have a very low-level but fun card for the next weekend, that ought to be full of good betting opportunities, so hopefully can start building a little win streak here.