UFC on ABC 3 Preview & Predictions

Somehow I always end up on huge exposure...

Main Event: Brian Ortega vs. Yair Rodriguez

When Jiri was last fighting, I said that retard strength and chin is the best base for MMA. Well that's exactly what Ortega has at least in context of featherweights. He is gonna be outgunned on the feet but we really have not seen Yair in recent years against a dangerous grappler like this, most of his opponents have been very content to just strike with him. Think that just changes the dynamic enough to favor Ortega, and if Ortega can consistently turn this into a grappling match, then the likelihood of finish goes up by a lot.

Similarly, if Yair manages to keep this standing, he is gonna give Ortega a lot of damage. Ortega is stupid tough though and hasn't gotten finished even by much more powerful strikers, so I don't think Yair isn't going to finish him. 

So overall, I guess I favor this one to go the distance, but if it pans out in the style of fight that favors Ortega, then it is more likely to go to a finish.

Prediction: Ortega/ITD

Bets: 2u Ortega sub to win 3.8u, 1u Rodriguez Dec to win 4u. 

Co-Main Event: Michelle Waterson vs. Amanda Lemos

Similar to main event in that it's powerful girl vs. an evasive technical striker. Well Waterson really isn't the Marvel that Yair is, very content to just point fight on the outside. 

Lemos probably at this point of her career and with Waterson aging should be sizeable favorite here. Waterson has a path of victory by making it into a sweaty point fight and mixing in some grappling. Still Lemos probably catches her with enough big shots to edge the rounds. Think finish is somewhat unlikely cause Waterson is likely gonna be jabbing her 6 feet away and fighting cautiously. 

If Waterson does engage in the pocket then the odds of finish do go up, but don't think she will be fighting like a retard against one of the most powerful girls in the division at this point of her career.

Prediction: Lemos/GTD

Bets: 0.5u Waterson Dec to win 2.25u

Jingliang Li vs. Muslim Salikhov

King of Kung Fu has gotten some very good results recently, but he is up there in age and has been only sporadically active. Still this is fairly good style match-up for him. Don't see Li grapplefucking him so Li can only beat him by hurting him. To be fair, Li might be somewhat basic but he has hurt a lot of top guys, including Ponz and Zaleski Dos Santos. 

Tricky fight to bet on in other words, especially since we didn't really see much out of Li against Chimaev. Honestly this is probably a dog or pass situation, as said Salikhov is the better fighter here but you wouldn't wanna be laying juice on aging, low-volume striker against Li who is gonna fight for your money. I gotta see the odds here but at even money I'd big Salikhov... barely.

Prediction: Salikhov/GTD

Bets: 1.5u Leech ML to win 2u

Matt Schnell vs. Su Mudaerji

Rangy KO striker against skilled but chinny guy. I think Mudaerji is gonna get that KO he wants here. Schnell has to grapple absolutely urgently. If he does successfully grapple, think he is live to win a decision or get a sub though. Neither guy has a ton of decisions so this should be a violent fight either way.

Prediction: Mudaerji/ITD 

Bets: 3.75u Mudaerji KO/TKO to win 4.5u

Shane Burgos vs. Charles Jourdain

Burgos took a scary KO against Barboza but then rallied to put on a great performance against Billy Q. So guess we can be cautiously confident that Burgos is not suffering any after effects from that beating. If he had, I would definitely be favoring Jourdain here cause Jourdain has everything you really need in a good fighter, has consistently shown himself to be able hang in there with high-level guys. 

Still Shane being his normal self should have all the tools to beat Jourdain here, but he is also likely to just engage in a wild war that doesn't maximize his winning percentage. Guess finish either way is the only thing we can expect here since it ought to be a high pace war.

Prediction: Burgos/ITD

Bets: 2u Under 2.5 rounds to win 1.5u, 1u Jourdain ML to win 1.4u 

Lauren Murphy vs. Miesha Tate

Kind of a hard fight to get a beat on. Murphy low-skill, tough grinder, but in this division it takes her far. Tate was kind of a grinder herself during her prime, but I'd think she is gonna be the stronger and more skilled one here. It's hard to back someone who's 35 though especially after that Vieira showing. 

Should not forget thought that Murphy herself is 38 and has taken a lot of attrition in her fight career, so actually it's more likely she just shows up not being able to do much than Tate. 

Prediction: Tate/GTD

Bets: 0.75u Murphy ML to win 1.35u

Punahele Soriano vs. Dalcha Lungiambula

Dalcha has to be one of the more incoherent fighters on the roster. Sure he is explosive and powerful, but if anything his skills are more in wrestling where he simply gasses and gives up in half a round. I don't know, Punahele is kind of a meme himself but I think he is much the better striker here, that said might get nuked by Dalcha. 

Either way someone is probably getting nuked, and if not, I think Soriano will either be winning a striking match and forcing Dalcha to wrestle and gas or Dalcha just tries to wrestle a lot to begin with. Either way he is gonna fade and eat some bombs from Puna. 

Prediction: Soriano/ITD

Bets: 3u DGTD to win 1.6u, 1.5u Puna KO/TKO to win 2.6u

Ricky Simon vs. Jack Shore

It's gonna be a close fight, I mean with Simon's pace and wrestling, everything is gonna be close fight unless he just gets randomly nuked. It's gonna be a lot of pace and lot of wrestling transitions, should be very fun scrap. I don't think Shore's record looks that amazing in hindsight, but the guy is still young and improving from fight to fight so it could be anything from domination to slightly inferior to Simon here. 

Prediction: Simon/GTD

Bets: 3u Simon ML to win 4u

Bill Algeo vs. Herbert Burns

Burns subs early or it becomes a greasy match. He has some of the submission prowess of his brother but does not seem top level talent and is more gassy if anything. I mean, who has he really fought? All the guys he has fought either suck or were old at the time of fighting him. He lost to Pineda last time around and that's a real red flag cause Pineda ain't all that.

It's also not like Burns is some "young prospect", the man is already 34 so extremely unlikely to show up looking like a world-beater.

Algeo is good enough to be a test to anyone. 

Prediction: Algeo/ITD

Bets: 0.5u Burns R1/2 sub to win 2.25u

Dustin Jacoby vs. Da Un Jung

I don't know, I kinda wanna be on Jung but I don't know if I can trust someone who went to draw with 2020 Sam Alvey. Jacoby is solid, shouldn't get randomly nuked and should have the output to win rounds steadily. At the same time both are durable and I don't think there will be such a clear domination that anyone gets finished either way.

Prediction: Jacoby/GTD

Bets: 2.5u Jacoby ML to win 2.6u

Dwight Grant vs. Dustin Stoltzfus

Grant is always random explosion away from winning. Grant is always random explosion away from losing. Stoltzfus is not great but at least he is a coherent fighter. So... let's go. Also Dustin is on 3 fight loss streak, so fighting for his employment ought to see him being at his top form here. 

Prediction: Stoltzfus/GTD

Bets: 1u Stoltzfus ML to win 0.9u

Jessica Penne vs. Emily Ducote

It's another low-level women's MMA fight. Penne has grappling and experience advantage I think. Ducote... I don't know really. Penne 29-28 probably here.

Prediction: Penne/GTD

Bets: 2.1u Penne ML to win 2.9u

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